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US: Obama 53, McCain 46 (CNN-10/30-11/1)

Topics: PHome

CNN / ORC
10/30 - 11/1/08; 714 LV, 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 53, McCain 46

 

Comments
cjk002:

Does anyone now how accurate CNN's final polls were in 2004?

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platanoman:

The Surge. What happen to Boomshak?

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RfrancisR:

The most important thing about this isn't the margin. It's the O=53 number. If Obama has 53 nationally, I am confident that he won't lose the EV.

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Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues... !!!

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RfrancisR:

@ cjk002:

I believe CNN was polling with Gallup last time around. So, how good was Gallup?

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WillPearson:

@platanoman

He gone.

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nirad:

very good poll for Obama this close to election day. they must push leaners hard.

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andrewfromva:

Boomshack was booted for good, although I'm suspicious that he is been back and posting under different names. The final CNN/Gallup poll from 2004 I don't think that CNN and Gallup are together any more) was a 49-49 tie. Two of the more accurate pollsters wer NBC and CBS, both of which show Oboma up big at this point. We will see...

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mandalorianarmy:

CNN was a co-sponsor of the Gallup poll last time. They had it at Bush 49 - Kerry 47. So they were pretty close.

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Indiana4Obama:

I think the national numbers, while encouraging, need to take a backseat at this point to the state polls.

Kerry was 120,000 votes away from winning the electoral college and losing the national vote by 3-4 points.

It's unlikely, though not impossible, that Mccain loses the popular vote and squeaks out an electoral college victory. That's certainly been the Mccain strategy, having all but given up on winning the popular vote, and focusing on OH/VA/PA/FL to try and secure narrow victories there.

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Pazienza:

IBD/TIPP - Obama's lead evaporating.

Obama 46.7

McCain 44.6

Undecided 8.7

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=310496941909729

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andrewfromva:

i believe their very last poll was a 49-49 draw. so either a slight democratic lean or well within the moe.

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mandalorianarmy:

andrew is right. It was 49/49. The info on RCP was incorrect.

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Viperlord:

But.... But.... They're evil liberals!

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Isher:

If leaners break like that the GOP better move in to defend GA and LA.

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Thatcher:

@Paz

ROFLMAO .... using IBD/TIPP to make your case is like letting Investment banks and Mortgage companies self regulate ... ROFLMAO

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mysticlaker:

HAHA. IBD.

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Viperlord:

IBD/TIPP has already been debunked for extremely suspect methodology. But hey, that's a fact, facts have no place in the GOP.

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ricbrig:

it will go on drudge in 3 seconds

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deeproy:

@Viperlord

Looks like the last IBD / TIPP was 48 - 43, with 3.4 MOE. This is well within their MOE. So it looks kind of flat.

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lhtk:

Btw, re the M-D polls that came out earlier today: Nate has a great perspective on them at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. And his discussion does not even mention the datedness of the polls.

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ricbrig:

Note that the Fox poll has not been withdrawn from RCP average. Their average now is made on 11 polls but I believe it's because all these polls, except for the trackers are final.

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johncoz:

@Pazienza:
"IBD/TIPP - Obama's lead evaporating"

You're joking, right?

This pollster has been outside the standard deviation of all national polls every day since it started on 13/10.

And despite the best efforts of this pollster, who also asks questions like "are you ready for socialism?" (push polling, anyone), no pollster has shown a McCain lead since September 25, even TIPP.

Be partisan, by all means. But don't be stupid.

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NW Patrick:

Mason Dixon shows O winning FL, VA, PA, NV. and CO. How does McCain win? This pollster OVERSTATED Bush in every single BG poll this did closing in '04. Feelin' good!:)

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Dewey1858:

@Pazienza:
IBD/TIPP - Obama's lead evaporating.

Obama 46.7

McCain 44.6

Undecided 8.7

Thanks for the statistical noise update.

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straight talk:

@ Everyone

Do the GOP have a Gotv Strategy? Because all I am hearing is propoganda speech! Early voting numbers talk! And they say McCain is in trouble!

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NW Patrick:

Mason Dixon better be right in OH:)

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/31 -- -- 48.8 44.6 Obama +4.2

Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 45 47 McCain +2
Columbus Dispatch* 10/22 - 10/31 2164 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/27 648 LV 3.9 49 45 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 644 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 779 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 404 RV 4.9 48 41 Obama +7
Marist 10/24 - 10/26 661 LV 4.0 48 45 Obama +3
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 10/22 - 10/26 1425 LV 2.6 51 42 Obama +9
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 607 LV 4.0 48 41 Obama +7
PPP (D) 10/21 - 10/23 993 LV 3.1 51 44 Obama +7
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10

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Thatcher:

Interesting to note:

In the national polls - ALL being used by RCP for their average have Obama at or above 50% except for the three most (R) house-effect polls:

Fox
IBD
Battleground

And those are the 3 with the lowest spread between Obama and McCain ...

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eugene:

This is my reason why Obama is going to win this election,back in 2004 when the California poll closed Bush had 230 electoral votes,Kerry had 189 electoral votes,with these battle-ground states remaining,Ohio,Pennsyvania,Missouri,Colorado,Ne mexico,Alaska,Hawaii,lowa,,Wisconsin,Michigan,Newhampshire, Bush will go on to recieve 56 more electoral votes,and Kerry will go on to get 63 more electoral votes,on Tuesday when the California poll closes Obama should have 239 electoral votes,and Mccain should have 131 electoral votes,with these battleground states remaining,Nevada,Alaska,Hawaii,Arizonia,N-dakota,Colorado,Indiana,Missouri,Ohio,Pennsyvania,Virgina,Georgia,N-carolina,Florida,the reason i mention Alaska in Hawaii is because their polls dont close until 12eastern,so all Obama will need to get is 31 more electoral votes,in if you look at the battleground states that will be remaining after the California poll closes,Obama is leading in 8 of them which total about 114 electoral votes,so when the California poll closes at 10pm eastern time,Obama should be in good shape,because he would be only 31 votes away.and Mccain will be 139 away,and if you looke back in 2004 Bush and Kerry almost split the remaing 119 electoral votes after the California poll closed.

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eugene:

This is my reason why Obama is going to win this election,back in 2004 when the California poll closed Bush had 230 electoral votes,Kerry had 189 electoral votes,with these battle-ground states remaining,Ohio,Pennsyvania,Missouri,Colorado,Ne mexico,Alaska,Hawaii,lowa,,Wisconsin,Michigan,Newhampshire, Bush will go on to recieve 56 more electoral votes,and Kerry will go on to get 63 more electoral votes,on Tuesday when the California poll closes Obama should have 239 electoral votes,and Mccain should have 131 electoral votes,with these battleground states remaining,Nevada,Alaska,Hawaii,Arizonia,N-dakota,Colorado,Indiana,Missouri,Ohio,Pennsyvania,Virgina,Georgia,N-carolina,Florida,the reason i mention Alaska in Hawaii is because their polls dont close until 12eastern,so all Obama will need to get is 31 more electoral votes,in if you look at the battleground states that will be remaining after the California poll closes,Obama is leading in 8 of them which total about 114 electoral votes,so when the California poll closes at 10pm eastern time,Obama should be in good shape,because he would be only 31 votes away.and Mccain will be 139 away,and if you looke back in 2004 Bush and Kerry almost split the remaing 119 electoral votes after the California poll closed.

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Marcus:

Gallup

LV O+8
LV2 O+9
RV O+11

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Thatcher:

Gallup:

RV O+11 (nc)
LVT O+8 (-2)
LVE O+9 (-1)

Easily within rounding issues ... no worries

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Thatcher:

Gallup:

RV O+11 (nc)
LVT O+8 (-2)
LVE O+9 (-1)

Easily within rounding issues ... no worries

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RfrancisR:

IF RCP wasn't biased, it would drop Fox, Marist and GWU, all those polls at this point are outdated.


Thus it would look like this:


Ras O+5
Hotline O+5
Zogby O+6
Gallup avg O+8.5
CBS O+13
ABC O+9
CNN O+7
IBD O+2

Average O+ 6.9375

And if you drop IBD which is proven to be a crap poll (see what Nate Silver had to say at fivethirtyeight.com) then the average is O+ 7.64

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RfrancisR:

If you drop CBS and IBD from that list (my above comment) it is O+6.75

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johncoz:

The stats say snap, crackle and pop. No change from yesterday.

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nirad:

so is McCain still winning the youth vote overwhelmingly in the IBD poll? The kids just love that McCain maverickiness.

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PJ_FFM:

I wouldn't discard TIPP as easily as some people here seem to suggest.

In '04 their final projection was:

10/30 - 11/1/04
Bush 50.1
Kerry 48.0
Nader 1.1
Others 0.8


The actual results turned out to be:

Bush 50.73
Kerry 48.27
Nader 0.38
Others 0.62

I don't know about you, but I'd rather not call an accuracy like that "crap".

So please, do regard IBD/TIPP as a "caveat", and if you are into "Camp Obama", then you should Get Out The VOTE!

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Dewey1858:

I don't know about you, but I'd rather not call an accuracy like that "crap".

File that under the headline about the broken clock being right twice a day. The problems with that poll were recently exposed by Nate Silver at 538.

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PJ_FFM:

@nirad

Actually I think "the kids", or rather, "a certain group of young [not-so-]gentlemen, included in the IBD/TIPP-poll", might have a (post-)puberty crush on Palin.
Not something I'd consider a *sensible* motive for a decision on who to vote for, but psychologically not completely implausible.

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RfrancisR:

@ nirad:

No. Not anymore, not now that the pollster has abandoned random sampling to try to get it right. Further he's intentionally under-sampling the youth vote. He's essentially counting on youth vote levels to be lower than in 2004. Plus, as someone else pointed out, he's also push polling asking questions like "are you ready for socialism?"

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RfrancisR:

@ PJ_FFM

Given that no other polling firm in the universe has McCain/Palin winning the youth vote, I wouldn't count on it.

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PJ_FFM:

@Dewey1858

Check for yourself; and even if IBD/TIPP were right only as often as a broken clock (given the clock has still got its fingers... if it's a digital clock, it wouldn't even be right twice a day... and if it shows AM/PM, you'd even have to reduce it to once in a day...), if that's on election day upon the closing of the polling places, well, you know, just a caveat.

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RfrancisR:

Wow! When Mason Dixon has you down five to Obama in Colorado, you can consider yourself through there.


http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/752968.html

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laguna_b:

@Rfrancis

IBD actually has Obama / McCain 64/36 in the 18-24 column.....pretty big move from ~25/75% a few days ago. Reasons:
1) Kids were completely moved by the Informercial
2) IBD just makes up the numbers because it is cheaper than making a bunch of phone calls.

Answer more likely #2

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Dewey1858:

@PJ_FFM:

Check for yourself; and even if IBD/TIPP were right only as often as a broken clock (given the clock has still got its fingers... if it's a digital clock, it wouldn't even be right twice a day... and if it shows AM/PM, you'd even have to reduce it to once in a day...), if that's on election day upon the closing of the polling places, well, you know, just a caveat.

I'm quite happy with the odds you describe.

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Cranky Yankee:

"I wouldn't discard TIPP as easily as some people here seem to suggest.

In '04 their final projection was:

10/30 - 11/1/04
Bush 50.1
Kerry 48.0
Nader 1.1
Others 0.8"

PJ_FFM, your information is incorrect. The final TIPP data can be seen here

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

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Bigmike:

RfrancisR:

IF RCP wasn't biased, it would drop CBS, ABC/WP and Gallup, all those polls are in the tank for Obama.


Thus it would look like this:


Ras O+5
Hotline O+5
Zogby O+6
Marist O+7
Fox O+4
GWU O+3
CNN O+7
IBD O+2

Average O+ 4.875
Average MOE 3.3

Looks like we have ourselves a 2 point game.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Bigmike

I think I am picking up sarcasm but maybe not?

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Bigmike:

Pro-America_Anti-America

You win the prize.

I was illustrating the dangers in cherry picking which polls to include in an average.

I don't believe it is a two point race. But I also think if you look at the data, CBS is way out in left field. They really skew the average. It is not a 10 pt race either.

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colorado resident:

If you don't know about what Palin has done in Alaska, you really should read this
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/a-letter-about-sarah-palin-from-anne-kilkenny/

The republican ticket is way too dangerous!

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