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VA: McCain 48, Obama 39 (CNewportU-9/10-14)

Topics: PHome

Christopher Newport University
9/10-14/08; 500 RV, 4.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Virginia
McCain 48, Obama 39

 

Comments
Dave:

right on the heels of two polls having obama ahead in VA and even a FOX poll with a 48/48 tie? this seems like a bit of an outlier. where are the internals?

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lilyogini:

All these polls are whacked out.

I don't think I believe any of them anymore.

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RaleighNC:

This poll is either ahead of an unknown trend in VA, or a severe outlier. That's a lot of undecideds, too.

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AmericaFirst:

I think Obama has the advantage in VA. Still, this seems a little generous.

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Varon:


Look at the DATE! This is old data!

Why do they bother?

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jamesia:

uh... no...

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StuffOfInterest:

As much as I would love this to be true, being a Democrat living in Virginia, there is just no way this can be accurate. They must have only done their poll in Fairfax County and Arlington.

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StuffOfInterest:

Oh for crying out loud. Sorry, I'm dyslexic today! I saw that and the numbers were the other way around. I still think there has to be a regional bias to this survey, just maybe in SE Virginia rather than the NoVA like I was speculating before.

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Whitetower:

This does seem to be an outlier: contrary to polls getting wrong the other way, they probably oversampled Republicans or perhaps men.

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djneedle83:

this poll is TRASH......

This is like when Siena said New York State is a five point game. HAHA.

Virginia is a dead-heat....

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Clint Cooper:

Wish I could see the cross-tabs on it. Probably undercounting the AA vote which would explain Warner still having a huge lead (very popular statewide) and Obama trailing.

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faithhopelove:

This poll is almost certainly an outlier. Today's PPP poll of VA (which shows Obama ahead by 2 there) was in the field more recently and has a sample more than twice as large.

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player:

So guys which one is correct? This one or the CNN/Time poll? Would you say this poll is an outlier even though it is in line with Rass and the other current polls, or would it now shift the focus to CNN/Time poll as the outlier?

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HaloFan:

Obama had more negative add - hence the polls
mccain needs to hit him hard, very hard on everything.
I think he is waiting after the debate

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NW Patrick:

9/14 is 2 news cycles away. VERY BAD McCain news cycles hehe This is getting fun.

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Stuart:

This poll was conducted over 5 days (start 10th ending the 14th) and only has a sample of 500. So it pretty much started at the height of the McCain bounce, and ended before the crash.

I would give much greater weight to PPP (13th & 14th, 1000 sample size), which in terms of news cycles is also a bit old.

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KipTin:

All this stuff about "stale" or "a bit old" polls is irrelevant when one considers that the general election is 48 days away. The stock market will rebound and this week will be somewhat forgotten with a new issue having taken it place which will favor one candidate or the other.

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CBS poll just came out, Obama up by 5, when u add Nader/Barr, he's up by 6. Dems were polled 7% more than Repubs. This is great news!

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf

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mjames:

Here's why the poll is so off. Only 8% of the sample was African American, and 88% was over 40. African Americans made up 21% of the voters in the 2004 exit poll.

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=629E26EBCEFE9286A3FAA6B4F2567CD9?diaryId=16021

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change:

hahahahahahahahahahahahah .. hold on ahahahahahahahahahahahaha. hold on ..ahahahahahaahhahaahah: can u say "trying to rally neo-cons in virgina through a schewed poll

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John:

Wow, how can a pollster not weigh for race and age, it is pretty well known that the response rate is different from these demographics. I both know why and broadly agree with Charles and Mark's reasoning for including all polls, but the demographics in this poll borders on the ridiculous. Although I suppose if you have decided to include Zogby Interactive....

(At a rough estimate; adding 0.9 to the margin for the democrat canditate, for every additional percentage point of African-american voters, reweighting for a 19% turnout would give a narrow lead to Obama.)

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tjampel:

Here's what PPP had to say about this poll; read it and laugh (or weep, if this level of desperation is real)

"While only the election will answer who is right or wrong, the demographic composition of the polls can easily be compared to the state’s demographics.

About 20% of Virginians are black and according to the 2004 exit polls for the state, 21% of voters that year were black. PPP projects blacks to make up 22% of the electorate, while Christopher Newport projects blacks to be less than 10% of the electorate.

To put this into voter turnout figures, for the Christopher Newport survey to be correct there would have to be 55% turnout from non-black eligible voters, while only 25% of black eligible voters would have to turn out. PPP thinks that black voters and those who are not will turn out at roughly equal levels.

There is also an age disparity. We project that 44% of the electorate will be under 45 years of age, while Christopher Newport anticipates only 12% of the electorate being under the age of 40. According to the 2004 exit poll 49% of voters were under 45."

Player/Boomshack, tell us it ain't so---that this is a fair and honest poll;after all it shows your guy in the lead, so it's fair, right?

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boomshak:

Guys,

Please keep in mind that all of these state polls have pretty fat MOE's. They really all need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Bottom line, this race is like a close football game and will probably comes down to who scores last.

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