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VA: McDonnell 55 Deeds 40 (SurveyUSA 7/27-28)


SurveyUSA
7/27-28/09; 526 likely voters, 4.3% margin of error
Mode: IVR

(SurveyUSA release)

Virginia

2009 Governor
55% McDonnell (R), 40% Deeds (D) (chart)
Dems: 11% McDonnell, 86% Deeds
Reps: 88% McDonnell, 7% Deeds
Inds: 60% McDonnell, 35% Deeds

Party ID
38% Republican, 32% Democrat, 29% independent

 

Comments
conspiracy:

I don't doubt McDonnell is ahead but the huge party ID swing in just a month seems a little odd. Unless there is confirmation from another source I'm considering it an outlier for now.

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Stillow:

I agree McDonnell is probably leading, but not by 14 points........maybe more like 4. We need more polls on VA though...

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conspiracy:

McDonnell leads 56-41 in NoVa? Please! I'm not calling bias I'm calling wrong.

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LordMike:

Didn't Survey USA get the VA primaries totally wrong as well? McConnell leading by almost 15 points in Northern Virginia? Like conspiracy said... there is no way that is possible...

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Stillow:

It could very well be true, we need more polling. Look whats going on in NJ....Christie is whipping Corzine big in a solid blue state! Its been ato long since we had VA polls and we need more to verify or debunk this poll. Right now its pure guessing.

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conspiracy:

Well, Corzine is an incumbent so that is slightly different. Just staying with that 56-41 figure in NoVA - it was Deeds up 47-42 last month. From the obscene to the ridiculous.

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conspiracy:

"Didn't Survey USA get the VA primaries totally wrong as well?"

Not really. Their final poll was 60-38 while the actual result was 64-35. They are good pollsters but when they do screw up it is usually really bad. Check out their Minnesota numbers last year for what I mean.

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conspiracy:

Or did you mean the Deeds/McAuliffe/Moran primary?

Their final poll was 42-30-21 when the result came in at 50-26-24.

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conspiracy -

I don't know if it was intentional, but your numbers on the primary is wrong and misleading.

Final Poll as: 42-30-21....+7% undecided

Once you allocate the undecideds, their polling was within the margin of error. That makes them 2 for 2 in recent Virginia polling being within the margin of error.

That means that, at best, Deeds is still down by about 10 points. Note that the McConnell-Deeds split corresponds pretty well with the decline in Obama's approval rating over the same time period, so it's entirely likely that Deeds is suffering by association as well.

This doesn't bode well for Deeds going forward as Obama and Democratic approval in general will likely continue to decline with the expected increases in the unemployment rate through the middle of next year.

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conspiracy:

Obviously not intentional since I also stated they are good pollsters. I'm skeptical, particularly because of the NoVa numbers. I shall wait for confirmation from another source. The election is this year not next by the way.

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I know the election is this year; however, I was trying to make the point that the approval trend for Democratic candidates is likely to look worse month-over-month from now until at least the middle of next year. Both Deeds and Corzine are likely to be casualties of this trendline, and barring an economic miracle so will a number of potentially vulnerable House members.

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Paul:

Party ID is very different from 2008 exit polls, which showed turnout in VA as Dem 39%, Rep 33% and Ind 27%. If you redistribute the poll results, using this party ID breakout, McDonnell would have 49% and Deeds 45%. In addition, the gender breakout in the poll is 48-52 F-M whereas in the 2008 exit poll the breakout is 54-46 F-M. Finally, the poll has 76% White; in the 2008 exit polls, the White number was 70%. Given just these three variables (party ID, gender and race), it would seem that this poll significantly overestimates the lead that McDonnell has. Having said the above however, if McDonnell does get 60% of the independent vote, he will win.

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