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WA: 2010 Sen (SurveyUSA 4/19-22)

Topics: Poll , Washington

SurveyUSA
4/19-22/10; 517 likely voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

Washington

2010 Senate
52% Rossi (R), 42% Murray (D)
46% Murray (D), 44% Benton (R)
46% Murray (D), 44% Didier (R)
45% Murray (D), 43% Widener (R)
45% Murray (D), 44% Akers (R)
45% Murray (D), 41% Coday (R)

 

Comments
Pluoticus:

Sweet!

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rdw4potus:

23% of liberals responding said that they'd vote for Rossi. OK, so health care reform may not have gone far enough for some on the extreme left. They're angry, and they vented in a poll. They're not actually going to vote for the republican out of spite...

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Rockym92:

Hell, I'd love to see this seat flip, but this poll is an outlier for now.

It's going to take alot to take this seat from Murray. The national climate will have to keep getting worse for dems in general and the GOP candidate will have to run a very good campaign. Unlikely at the moment but it certainly isnt out of the question.

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jmartin4s:

I like Murray, but I said it would dogfight against Rossi and this gold standard poll proves me correct. Is Nelcon going to start bashing SurveyUSA now???

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jmartin4s:

I like Murray, but I said it would dogfight against Rossi and this gold standard poll proves me correct. Is Nelcon going to start bashing SurveyUSA now???

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

SurveyUSA is racist. And sexist.

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rdw4potus:

This poll is fabulous. SUSA is my new favorite pollster. (replaces Rasmussen. Can't get behind the idea of LV polls so far from an election) Anyway...Murray is "losing support" from the far left in this poll. There's just no way those folks will do the same thing on election day.

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jmartin4s:

For anyone who goes and claims this poll is bunk lets check SUSAs track record in the 2009 cycle.
New Jersey
Final SUSA Poll
45% Christie
42% Corzine
Actual Result
48% Christie
45% Corzine
Actual Margin:Christie+3
SUSA Margin: Christie+3
Virginia
Final SUSA Poll
58% McDonnell
40% Deeds
Actual Result
59% McDonnell
41% Deeds
Actual Margin:McDonnell+18
SUSA Margin: McDonnell+18
The fact that SUSA nailed these two results right on the exact margin means that all you Murray fans should be taking this poll extremely seriously. Murray isn't rich like Cantwell so donate money and if you live in Washington start working the field.

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This has to be the most idiotic poll I've ever seen. It actually shows Rossi beating Sen. Murray in metro Seattle, which accounts for 47% of the States voters.

The last time a Republican won in Seattle in a statewide race was, uh, NEVER!!!!

Murray will be re-elected with 57-60% of the vote. She is extremely well-liked, even in the eastern, GOP sections of the state (where I live) and has produced Federal funding for thousands of jobs. She also fought hard for Boeing to win the AF tanker contract and is held in great esteem on the west side as well.

To say that five unknown Republicans are within 2-4 points of her is assinine. The only one of them that I ever heard of was Didier, and that's because I used to be a fan of the Washington Redskins when he was their tight end. He has never previously been in politics.

This is beyond a joke. This is just stupid as a poll. I would suspect that it really has an MOE of about +/- 25!

Does anyone seriously believe that if Dino Rossi actually thought numbers like this were real, he wouldn't have already thrown his hat in the ring? He knows against Murray he'd end up as a 3-time loser so he just gave out an interview saying that while he hasn't decided whether or not he'd run, he never wants to live in Washington, DC. What does that tell you about his plans?

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jmartin4s:

I said it above that Nelcon would claim this poll is punk and he did. He is claiming that SURVEYUSA the gold standard for polling is a joke, which is even funnier than Farleft claiming PA-12 is racist for having a low opinion of Obama. Right now I'm still predicting Murray will win but if this is the kind of attitude that fans of Murray have, that means you Nelcon, than she will lose. Saying over and over Murray will win by a landslide even though the gold standard for polling shows her down by ten is exactly the kind of attitude that leads candidates to lose and Nelcon if people like you continue to have that attitude there will be a Senator Dino Rossi. This poll should be scaring the bejesus out of you but instead you laugh it off. I remember when PPP had Coakley down by one and all the democrats said don't worry she will win. Seriously when people say that over and over it depresses turnout cause the dems think the D is a lock and they don't show up to vote and then we end up with Scott Brown in Kennedy's seat. (Not saying thats the only reason Coakley lost but that had a lot to do with it). I seriously don't get what poll has to show Murray down for people like Nelcon to start getting scared. If you really care about getting Murray re-elected you'll tell all your friends about this poll but if you keep treating the polls like they are a joke (especially the gold standard for polling) than Patti Murray will not be a senator a year from now. Nelcon, your ARROGANCE is your own worst enemy.

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To jmartin4s: Obviously, you don't live in the State of Wash. or know anything at all about it. Washington elections statewide are won by Democrats when the westside (Seattle metro plus southern Pacific Ocean counties including Olympia) vote about 60-40 for a Democrat and the population East of the Cascade Mountains vote less than 2-1 for a Republican. Republicans win when the population East of the Cascades vote more than 2-1 for the GOP candidate. They NEVER hold the Democrat to LESS than 60% on the westside.

In 2006, Sen. Cantwell won with 57% of the vote, which translated into an edge of about 350,000 votes. She won King County (Seattle metro) with 66% to 30% for GOP candidate Mike McGavick. Benton County, in the heavily GOP south central area of the State, only gave McGavick 55%. End of story for a GOP statewide candidate.

In 2008, Gov. Gregoire won with 53% to Dino Rossi'e 47%, which translated in the Presidential year to 190,000 vote margin. (Rossi was polling +/- 1% to Gregoire in the days before the election, but it was a blowout. She won King County by 64-36. Rossi won Benton County by 70-30, and still lost big-time. In the 2004 tie election between Gregoire and Rossi, Gregoire won King County 58-40 and Rossi won Benton 69-30. So the Eastern part of the state voted the same for Rossi in both elections, but Gregoire won big in '08 because she did better in the westside, probably thanks to Obama being on the ballot. He is hugely popular in the Evergreen State.

Murray, by the way, in '04 beat George Nethercutt 55-43, or 350,000 votes. She won King by 65-32 and lost Benton by 58-40. Sound familiar?

So when any poll shows the kind of regional results that the SUSA poll showed, anyone who knows anything at all about Washington State politics just laughs at it. No Republican candidate, I don't care who they are, will beat a Democratic candidate -- no matter who they are -- in King County in a statewide race. It's actually impossible. SUSA should have known that and done an immediate re-poll since their results make no sense. Remember, their sample was only 500+ respondents statewide, meaning just under 200 from King County. It's very easy to get a wildly unrepresentative sample from that small a sample in a huge metro area like Seattle. And they did.

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Rockym92:

nelcon, i think this poll is off too, but i live in MA and Brown picked up normally safe dem areas by 20 points in the election. This is not you ordinary election cycle.

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jmartin4s:

What Nelcon does not seem to understand is that Murray is up for re-election for the first time in a very republican leaning cycle. Murray's involvement with writing the healthcare bill and the comment Murray made during photo op with the kid whose mother died of cancer are not going over very well with independent voters in Washington. Will Murray win probably yes but if you keep acting ARROGANT she will lose. Nerthercutt, Chavez, and Chandler came off as much more conservative than Rossi and did not get the same kind of ticket splitting Rossi could get. People said Elizabeth Dole, Gordon Smith, Norm Coleman, George Allen would never lose and look what happened. No one is undefeatable. This isn't Rasmussen and very frankly this kind of arrogance of dismissing one of the most accurate pollsters as being bunk is just earth shattering. Nelcon, I'd like you to tell me when has SurveyUSA ever been wrong before. You people need to take this as a warning or a red flag and your not. Its not going to matter how much money Murray has or how good a campaigner she is, if this is the kind of arrogant support base she has where people just say ooh she's a lock. I have never seen such arrogance among democrats as now.

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Farleftandproud:

This is Washington, not Indiana. Survey USA tends to seem more favorable to Democratic candidates, which makes me wonder if this poll is flawed.

Washington has gone through this before. I remember Bush had some leads on 2004 polling in this state, and kerry won by about 4 points. It has Seattle which is very liberal, but other parts of the state are more like Idaho or Montana. I am sure that Patty Murray has a rough time campaigning in parts of these state.

This summer Obama can stay away from states like Arizona or Indiana which are going to be bad Democratic years in those places, but if he campaigns this summer for Patty Murray and back in his home state of IL, and can fire up his base, I think IL and Wash will stay in Democratic hands.

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Farleftandproud:

The two things about this poll that doesn't make sense is that Murray leads among people over 65 which is usually the worst group for Democrats, especially after the Health care reform Bill was signed. and I totally don't believe she is behind in Metro seattle.

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jmartin4s:

I remember this is the same kind of picking a part a poll I saw when SUSA showed Bob McDonnell surging to a double digits lead over Creigh Deeds in VA. I remember common lines on liberal blogs where oh is Deeds really behind in NOVA or is Deeds really behind with female voters. Farleft rather then picking apart the poll accept it for what it is and start making phone calls or donate money to Patty Murray's campaign. You yapping behind a computer about how a crosstab looks fishy is not going to get Patty Murray re-elected.

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Aaron_in_TX:

The point about arrogance is one to be taken. We've seen too many times the past few years that when female candidates feel that they're safe and go against charismatic male candidates, they lose.

I'm not sure Rossi will be the one though, and Murray is an incumbent.

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Farleftandproud:

Actually in the US Senate I can't think of any female incumbents who served a full term at least who lost to a man. Very few have been defeated period. Blanche Lincoln could be a first, and she may lose in the Democratic primary, but Rossi has lost to a woman. I don't think Washington voters change their mind as quickly as they do in swing states like NV, NH and PA. Perhaps the Boeing cutbacks could have a small impact. Murray could be beaten, and this race is one where lots of money will be spent. I am convinced Murray will pull it out.

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Farleftandproud:

I can campaign for candidates in other states. I am going to wait until July or August and figure out which ones are probably going to trend back in the Democrat's favor. After July, I will be working hard for the VT governor's race and probably 2 senate seats out of state held by Dems.

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jmartin4s:

"Actually in the US Senate I can't think of any female incumbents who served a full term at least who lost to a man." Carol Mosley Braun, Margaret Chase-Smith come to mind. BTW Farleft who are you supporting in the dem primary for vermont governor.

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Pluoticus:

I remember a Survey USA poll showing McCain up by 20 points in North Carolina just weeks out from the election. I'd love to be joyful with this poll, but I'm skeptical.

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Harry Enten:

I believe that SurveyUSA poll was two months out... not a few weeks... and fwiw, a R2K poll around that period also showed a 17 point edge for McCain... Most polls were around 3-5 lead for McCain around that time... What that means here? IDK.

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Murray is a lock. No Democrat loses in Metro Seattle. She has an extremely positive favorable rating, she is well-liked in the conservative parts of the State (Eastern Washington where I live, for example) and that comment about Boeing is totally misplaced.

First off, Boeing is hiring; second, Murray worked hard to stop out the Air Force from granting the huge new tanker contract to Airbus and got the specs re-written so that Boeing will win the contract. Everyone in the State knows that.

Also, in Central Washington, at the Hanford Nuclear site, she single-handedly got $6 billion of stimulus money to create thousands of new high-paying professional jobs to help clean up the nuclear waste there. Everyone within 50 miles of Hanford knows that.

Rossi knows he'll get creamed by Murray and won't run and the other people are known only to their next door neighbors.

As for my being arrogant and over-confident, NOT! But I know my state well. Obama continues to have about a 55% favorable rating here, Murray about the same, Cantwell about 52% and Gregoire about 47%. Now if SUSA said that Murray would win 58% of metro Seattle and get beaten, I might be worried. But when a poll shows her losing Seattle, laughter at the poll is the only appropriate answer.

Those of you who say SUSA is accurate but pointed out that McCain had a 20 point lead in NC two months out so they had time to correct it, may not be looking at the calendar, which says that the election here is SIX months out.

Also, those who are saying that it's a Republican year, don't live in the State of Washington. It isn't a Republican year here. Democrats continue to be very popular in the Evergreen state.

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Put it in the bank. Murray re-elected easily. She is extremely popular here in Washington and so is Obama. Also very popular in Washington is the health care bill. Even Rasmussen noted that in a poll here a couple of weeks ago.

And the poster who talked about concern about Boeing is totally wrong. She worked very hard to almost singled-handedly overturn the Air Force decision to give the huge new tanker contract to Airbus and got the specs rewritten to favor Boeing winning that contract. And Boeing is hiring again.

In the central part of the state, which is normally heavily Republican (where I live) she got $6 billion in stimulus dollars to hire thousands of highly paid professional people to intensify the nuclear cleanup at the Hanford site. Everyone around here knows it was Patty Murray that did that and she'll be rewarded in November.

Now, as for SUSA, I would be worried if the poll said she got her normally expected 55-65% of the vote in Metro Seattle and lost statewide. I'm absolutely not worried about any poll that says a Democrat will lose in Seattle. Especially to someone as well known as Dino Rossi. Gregoire creamed him in Seattle in both elections, even though she was really disliked. But he'll beat a well-liked and highly respected incumbent like Murray? In Seattle? Gimme a break. Not possible. Look at the other internals. She only wins female voters by 1 point? LOL. She loses the 18-34 voters by 3 points but the does better in the over 65? LOL. The results shows no results for African Americans or Hispanics (who make up at least 8-10% of the voters here) and she loses by 20 points to Asians????

Rossi gets 58% of the ASIAN vote???? Who are we kidding here? No, I'm not arrogant; I just live here and know my own state.

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jmartin4s:

Ok lets talk about SUSAs track record in WA in 2008.
Final SUSA polls
56% Obama
40% McCain
Actual Result
58% Obama
40% McCain

Final SUSA polls
52% Gregoire
46% Rossi
Actual Result
53% Gregoire
47% Rossi
They nailed Gregoire vs. Rossi right on the margin. But all the sudden when they show Murray down ten points they become bunk. Whatever you say Nelcon.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

@jmartin4s, forget about nelcon1551. There are left-wing posters here who live in the universe of complete obliviousness, where days are filled with either creating flattering poetry about Obama or finding racism at every facial expression. You and I have only the numbers here to analyze. They are what they are and they're mostly not good for the Democrats.

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lat:

All I know is I want the GOP to keep it up on Wall St. reform and their enthusiastic support of the new AZ immigration law (what a great way to win over Hispanic voters!) that is equal to something out of Nazi Germany (Achtung Juden! Where are your papers!). All the dems should be cheering this gleefully!

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Pluoticus:

After what Murray did with the healthcare disaster and now more extreme left wing stuff that she is in lockstep with, there is NO WAY a real conservative can vote for her. Whether its a conservative in Washington state or anywhere else. Murray sure as hell ain't no lock!

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rdw4potus:

"Pluoticus:

After what Murray did with the healthcare disaster and now more extreme left wing stuff that she is in lockstep with, there is NO WAY a real conservative can vote for her. Whether its a conservative in Washington state or anywhere else. Murray sure as hell ain't no lock!"

But, the reason she's down in THIS poll is because 23% of LIBERALS say they'll vote for Rossi. That's the EXACT OPPOSITE of your point...

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jmartin4s:

Murray approvals took a nose dive after the photo op with Marcelas Owens and the fact that she was a major contributor with writing the healthcare bill isn't helping either. My issue is that Murray is lucky enough to be getting a warning that she could be in trouble way before other politicians did and people are still not taking it seriously. Its the same kind of arrogance I saw in Massachusetts and it just sickens me.

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...and to echo rdw4potus point. Also, according to SUSA's crazy poll, she also loses Seattle to Rossi. Seattle favors health care reform by more than 2-1. What a stupid poll. I don't care what SUSA's results have been in other polls, this one makes no sense at all.

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Xenobion:

LOL this poll is hilarious. I live in WA and I haven't even heard of the other republicans minus Rossi. Rossi hasn't gotten 50% in any election race he's ever run for and I supremely doubt he'd get it from a senate race from a popular senator like Murray.

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sugarfree:

Even when Rossi got to within a couple hundred votes of Gregoire in 2004, she still won King County 57%-40%. Murray got 65% in King County the same year.

The internals of this are absolutely laughable.

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jmartin4s:

They haven't defined what Metro Seattle exactly is so I don't think everyone should just assume its only King county.

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Uh, excuse me jmartin4s. It's clear you know very little about Washington State. King County is far larger than Seattle, not contiguous with the city or the metro area. And the SUSA geographical spread shows three regions. Western, Eastern & Metro Seattle. Western would obviously mean everything west of the Cascades, except Seattle, while Eastern is the rest of the state. Most of us Washingtonians simply talk about the Eastside and the Westside, with the Cascade range the dividing line. There are a few enclaves of Democratic votes on the eastside, and a few enclaves of GOP votes on the westside. But mainly, everything west of the Cascades is liberal and everything east of the mountains is conservative, when it comes to voting. The problem for Republicans running statewide is that 70% of the population lives west of the Cascades.

As you can see from other posters who know the state, this poll is just laughable when you look at the regional internals. No way it can be representative of the voting patterns of the State of Washington.

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jmartin4s:

If Patty Murray loses this fall, I will specifically blame you, Nelcon, and all your like minded friends.

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Rockym92:

After Scott Brown beating Martha Coakley in normally ultrasafe democratic strongholds, how can you dismiss any poll showing a democrat losing in 1 of their normally safe areas? I thought i knew my state too and Washington isnt half as liberal as Mass is.

Also the demographics of this poll very closely resemble 2008's. 2010 should be even more favorable to the R than this poll is showing.

Having said all that, I still believe that Murray is ahead and that this poll is a bit of an outlier, but i could be wrong and Brown winning MA is all the proof than any1 should need.

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Rockym92:

So Murray only got 55% of the vote in the neutral 2004 presidential election year and it isnt conceivable that she could get a few points less in a horrible midterm cycle for democrats across the county?

If Rossi gets in how can this race not be very close?

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jmartin4s:

Maybe this little graph will help everyone understand whats going on with Patty Murray.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=20b0410b-6b61-4b44-9d80-d7825b331164
Here are some of the approve/disaprove
55%/39% in Jan
43%/50% in Fed
42%/45% in March
46%/48% in April
Murray's approval ratings took a nose dive around the time she did that photo op with the eleven year old. But I suppose these polls are bunk also right Nelcon.

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jmartin4s:

I also think that a lot of special interest groups have been advertising on the air in Washington state since Patty Murray played a big part in writing the healthcare bill and this also might be whats eating away at her poll numbers. Independents around the county are violently against the healthcare bill and thus their opinion of Patty Murray has gone done also. According the cnn 2008 exit poll independents made up a plurality of the electorate in Washington state at a total of 39%.

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jmartin4s: Despite all evidence to the contrary, you continue to believe that a single poll with ridiculous results is a valid challenge to a well-liked incumbent in a liberal state. Your own recap of SUSA favorability ratings of Murray show improving results for her from Feb. to April.

Also, in point to Rockym92, about Rossi, the man is despised on the Westside of the State, particularly in Seattle and even in his tie election of 2004 with Gregoire (who had disastrously unfavorable ratings) he got creamed in Seattle. When he ran again against a still disliked Gov. Gregoire in '08, he got blown out.

There is no way Rossi could effectively compete against an entrenched female liberal incumbent who is well liked. Remember also, this silly poll showed ZERO results for African Americans and Hispanics and showed Asian voters for Rossi (?). Impossible. Those three ethnic groups account for almost 20% of the electorate in Washington and typically vote 3-1 for Democrats. Also, it showed female voters going for Murray by only 1 point. In this state?

You've got to be kidding.

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Oh, and one other thing. Those who try to put this race into a context like Brown/Coakley are missing two valuable points. The MA race was a special election for an open seat in the middle of the winter in a northeastern state.

The Murray race will be in a regular general election against a well-known entrenched and well-liked incumbent in a state that has all mail-in voting.

Big differences.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Jmartin I totally agree with you regarding Dems becoming complacent about voting. I think 94 happened because DEMS did just that. I think these polls actually will help fire up the Dem base to be more active in voting and volunteering. However, I think we can't always just take every poll as legitimate if there are issues with party ids, etc.

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Xenobion:

If they polled King County they heavily polled Bellevue the only conservative populated part of the west side and Rossi's home base for donars. Completely laughable poll.

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Farleftandproud:

Haven't decided who I want for VT governor, but I know I don't want Dubie. That guy is a total joke. He has been LT governor for about 10 years, and I have only seen his picture twice in local newspapers.

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TeeCee:

The Dems are in a panic. They are already spending lots of time and money smearing Rossi... Gee, why would that be when he isn't a even declared candidate?

Only one reason, they are scared witless. It's gonin' be a real pleasure watching her go down in November.

Run Dino, Run!!!

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