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WA: Obama 46, McCain 37 (Elway-9/6-8)

Topics: PHome

Elway Poll
9/6-8/08; 225 RV, 6.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Washington
Obama 46, McCain 37
Gov: Gregoire (D-i) 48, Rossi (R) 44

 

Comments
Mike_in_CA:

what!? I thought it was so obvious that Obama's lead was plummeting. Right boomshak? Only 2 points. Obama is going to lose in a landslide. WA is cracking! Oh Noes!!

(sorry if I'm going overboard with the ridicule, but it's getting ridiculous how shrill the McCain trolls are getting)

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I think you should mention that Elway works for Gov Gregoire

[quote]State Government Accountability -- Office of the Governor
For the second year in a row, Elway Research is conducting a series of citizen workshops across the state as part of Governor Gregoire's Government Management Accountability and Performance (GMAP) program. The purpose is to understand citizen priorities for state government and their measures of success.[/quote]

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KipTin:

HUGE margin of error (extraordinary small sample.)

Gregoire is hoping this poll is right. I think the real measure of Gregoire vs. Rossi is the Aug. 19 primary results (Gregoire 48/Rossi 46)... with maybe a small bounce for Rossi... i.e. statistical tie.

Pollster average for Obama/McCain is 48-46. Elway's nine points with the margin of error factored in would fall in that range.

Note that I did not call this an outlier, because with MOE it is NOT. And those who have seen my previous posts know that I strongly disagree with all those posters who cavalierly write off polls as "outliers."

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KipTin:

Elway works under a limited contract for the State of Washington and NOT for Gregoire's campaign. Elway's polls are not always so kind to Gregoire.
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What is "ridiculous" is that Mike_in_CA takes this poll at face value without considering the sampling error... as well as ignores the previous recent polls with a smaller margin of error.
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Again I will remind those who are ignoring their statistics education (or never had any) that if you factor in the MOE... The last three polls (Elway, Rasmussen, Survey USA) are actually within the same range of 95% confidence of results.

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Bill A:

When you get bad poll numbers is hard to be "Kind" to your employer without appearing too biased

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Xenobion:

Government doesn't work like how you think Bill A in Washington State. Polls get little press to begin with. If anything a bad poll will make Gregoire take the election seriously.

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RaleighNC:

225 RV? Wow...they should be embarassed.

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Clint Cooper:

Having lived in Seattle I would say this poll is pretty much dead on.

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Clint Cooper:

To amend my comments - Rossi is perceived as a moderate which helps him with Independents in the state. Palin will rally the conservatives but alienate a lot of independents and fire up the Dems as well.

In the end, Obama will probably take WA by about 8 points I imagine.

Did anyone see that new Virginia poll that shows a huge swing to Obama? :)

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Scott in PacNW:

As a recently departed longtime WA resident, Elway is an independent pollster & over time they've proven extremely reliable.

This poll looks right for such a small sample, though I think the Gregoire-Rossi race will be a lot tighter than 4%.

To repeat my post from the other day, some FACTS on WA:

1 - Hasn't voted GOP in the presidential election since 1984.
2 - Kerry won 52.8% to 45.6%
3 - The state Dem Party is very strong & well organized, holding the gov & both houses of the state leg.
4 - Obama took the caucuses 2-1 & beat Hillary in the primary 51-46%
5 - McCain ran tied in the caucus with Huckabee & Paul, and took 50% in the primary
6 - Dem primary turnout beat GOP primary turnout 691K to 530K

The wildcard: The governor's race is a rematch of the very close (124 votes) 2004 race. GOPers screamed fraud & many still feel cheated.

Bottom line: WA Dems ran a great ground game in 2004, so IMO, Obama will take WA without trouble. Gov Gregoire will have to claw back into office, and the state party knows it. Hence the ground game.

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