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While I Was At AAPOR "Outliers"

Topics: Exit Polls , Measurement

Kathy Frankovic reviews new research on the impact of respondent age on question order effects and question response effects in surveys. Incidentally, Frankovic won the honor of the lifetime achievement award from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

Poblano predicts a 19-point Clinton win in Kentucky and a 13-point Obama victory in Oregon (with a revised turnout estimate).

PPP's Tom Jensen weighs in on Poblano's models and adds detail on their Oregon poll.

Tom Holbrook posts KY and OR forecasts based on a model using our trend estimates.

Brian Schaffner has delegate projections for KY and OR.

Markos has a roundup of KY/OR predictions from four more sources.

Ben Smith mines his comments section for a "mailman's exit poll" of reports from KY and OR.

Jake Tapper has the Karl Rove and Co. maps (pdf) that Hillary Clinton has been citing (via Smith).

Democratic pollster Paul Maslin crunches the electoral map (via Swampland, Smith).

Jennifer Agiesta reviews poll internals in which voters compare the attributes of Barack Obama and John McCain.

Gary Langer takes a skeptical look at Hillary Clinton's popular vote claims.

Jay Cost examines the relationship between partisanship and the Obama-Clinton results in Indiana.

David Hill is skeptical of a "sharp rise in voter turnout among African-Americans this November."

Mark Mellman looks at the role of gas prices in driving pessimistic assessments of the economy.

John Sides wants to remind George Stephanopoulos not to confuse correlations with causation in exit polls.

Carl Bialik finds little evidence in the exit polls of a "Limbaugh Effect."

CJR's Zachary Roth uses exit poll evidence to question John Edward's appeal to working class voters (via Crowley); Poblano, looking at similar numbers, agrees.

Exit pollster Joe Lenski will lead the New York Chapter of AAPOR in 2009.

 

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