May 19, 2009
While I Was Busy at AAPOR (and Since) "Outliers"
Gallup tabulates declines in GOP identification spanning "nearly every major subgroup," prompting reactions from Chris Cillizza, Steve Benen, Jon Singer, Matt Yeglesias and much of the blogosphere.
Jon Cohen explains why the Washington Post is not reporting Virginia primary polls.
Lee Sigelman is encouraged.
Tom Jensen is amused.
Ron Brownstein ponders Obama's opportunity to build "a lasting and potentially crushing advantage" with millennials.
Chris Good considers the potential appeal of economic conservatism to millenials.
Gary Langer reviews perceptions of tougher emissions standards.
Glen Bolger sees opportunity for the GOP in Pelosi's problems.
Chris Bowers averages favorable ratings for national Republicans.
Tom Schaller uses the Cook/Polidata "PVI" ratings of congressional districts to preview 2010.
Andrew Gelman plots higher ratings for small state governors.
The National Journal finds unhappiness with Dick Cheney among Republican political insiders.
Steve Singiser becomes a new DailyKos contributing editor, considers the long term trends in urban/rural voting patterns.
John Sides wonders whether observed differences in a willingness to "blame Jews" for the financial crisis would hold up with additional control variables.
Linton Weeks assesses the "outrageous proliferation of surveys in contemporary America" (via Lundry).
By Mark Blumenthal on May 19, 2009 3:13 PM | Permalink
Mr Mark Blumenthal :
There is a special Primary Election in California today Tuesday. To fill the seat at the House of Representatives vacated by Hilda Solis, secretary of Labor for Mr Obama.
I assume that we are not going to know the results until 3 or 4 hours later, because of California Pacific Time.
Judy Chu and Gil Cedillo are the favorites.
But if Emanuel Pleitez wins today then it would be very revolutionary, that candidate having worked with Obama in the transition team and being only 26 years old. He is strong in Finance and has worked for Goldman Sachs.
The Pleitez campaign has been poor in money but strong in Obama-like tactics of energizing youth.
The election agains the Republican is in July.
I plan to analize what happens in California.
Milenials.com
Vicente Duque
Posted on May 19, 2009 9:53 PM