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WI: 51% Johnson, 44% Feingold (Rasmussen 9/15)

Topics: poll , Wisconsin

Rasmussen
9/15/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wisconsin

2010 Senate
51% Johnson (R), 44% Feingold (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Russ Feingold: 51 / 46 (chart)
Ron Johnson: 61 / 33

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Ron Johnson is such a liar, but This would in my opinion be a minor tragedy for the Democrats. He is a legend in the senate. For some like Stillow and Field Marshall, you are probably very excited. Sort of like the reverse of some progressives who heard that Harvery Gant in NC had a lead of Jesse Helms. I am afraid that WI based on the Demographics, conservatives will get their wish. WI is a battleground state and unlike Barbara Boxer, he won't have a big minority electorate you have in CA. I think that is what will save her, and perhaps Harry reid.

This is one race for the Dems to fight hard for. If they right off, NC, KY, OH that might be smart.

Even if Dems keep Delaware and perhaps can win in Alaska with Murkowski on a third party ticket they may hold the senate. Harry Reid beating Sharron angle would be a good thing, but losing Russ Feingold, is like losing 3 Blanche Lincolns in the senate for the dems. This would be one that the voters of WI would really regret.

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boomer40:

61/33 Ron Johnson? Huh?

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Dave:

"61/33 Ron Johnson? Huh?"


Why not?

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BH:

Looks like this one is getting away from the Dems. Need to move WI to likely R.

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Farleftandproud:

The voters this year remind me of those financial service ads that ask people investing with a broker youdon't know, is ridiculous, so invest with us? B. clinton is needed soon in this state.

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Field Marshal:

Man it would be great to toss a far-left kook like Feingold out of the Senate. Still a long way to go on this one though.

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Farleftandproud:

Field Marshall may get his wish. The independents have Johnson way ahead.

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boomer40:

first, that he's so well-known (he's not), and second, that he's so well-liked. Are there going to be debates any time soon?

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Field Marshal:

Yeah, there are three debates: Oct 8, Oct 11, Oct 22.

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Dave:

boomer: I live in Wisconsin, I'd say among likely voters, he's definitely that well known. During the NFL opener last Thursday, I think he had 3 ads in a 5 minute span. That doesn't mean people like him of course, but I certainly think he's well known enough.

As for debates, they've agreed to 3.
Oct. 1 Milwaukee

Oct. 11 Wausau

Oct. 22 Milwaukee

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Mogando669:

Pretty good developments - screwed up DE, but :

1. WI going from toss-up to lean R
2. IL going to toss-up / barely R
3. CA going from lean D to toss-up/barely D
4. WV going from landslide to lean D

Sweep all 4 and GOP will reach 51. Split them 50/50 and R's will be at 49, which is just sufficient to have some say in things, but keep the blame on Dems.

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boomer40:

I know I'm a broken record on this but 94% name ID for a first-time politician a week after Labor Day is ridiculous. That kind of awareness is reserved for the president and longtime state-level pols. Looking at, say, Quinnipiac OH Senate on the front page, Strickland has 90% awareness and Kasich has 84% and both of them are likely far better known in their state than Johnson is in his state. PPP in New Hampshire has their Senate candidates between 60% and 80%. In North Carolina, Rasmussen has Marshall at 46/36 while PPP has her at 24/21 and SurveyUSA at 27/25.

There is obviously some subset of people of whom 94% know enough about Johnson to offer an informed opinion—Pulse managed to reach that group on the phone. But "people who will vote in Wisconsin on November 2, 2010" is not one of them.

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Farleftandproud:

I think it is important for more pollsters to do Wisconsin. So far nobody but Rasmussen has polled this since July.

If Dems hold on in CAl,WA, CT DE they keep a majority. If they get WV or NV it will look good. Ultamately, WV could be the surprise for the GOP since I don't think the truly blue states want to be responsible for giving the GOP the majority.

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Dave:

PPP had a poll up on where to poll next, I voted for WI, but I think WV won out.

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Farleftandproud:

Survey USa is truly a crappy poll. Half of Hispanics supporting Fiorina? 30 percent of African Americans Supporting Fiorina? Every other poll had hispanics supporting Boxer like 2-1. I say this because they have had both Dayton in MN and Washington trailing in more progressive areas like the Twin Cities and Seattle, while they had Murray ahead in a more rural part of Washington and Dayton ahead in a more rural part of MN. It could have been Michelle Bachmann's district for all I know.

They are also misleading in polls with older voters sometimes favoring a Democrat overwhelmingly and the under 30's who still give Obama a 60 percent approval rating favor the GOP. If Research 2000 was considered a lousy poll, I think survey USA is going to be out of business after this year.

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billwy:

@FLAP
I'd like to see a non-Ras poll too. But here's a thought that comes to mind. Given that RAS is the only public pollster doing this race and that they have consistently been finding Johnson staked to an insignificant lead-though now 7 with the primary bump-don't you think that Feingold campaign would have countered with their own numbers if they showed something different?

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Vagabond57:

It seems as though, by flooding the world with polls, Rasmussen is trying to create the impression of a trend where no clear trend exists. Let's see how Feingold does when someone else does the polling.

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GoTo123:

@FLAP

Hey I know this is a bit off topic but have you heard about the "revelations" surrounding Nathan Deal in the past few days? This guy is just well to put it nicely ... ridiculous. Yesterday, he claimed that he "forgot" to disclose to the State Ethics Commission that he owes over two million dollars for a loan after the AP found out about it. And if that weren't enough, on Wednesday he admitted that he owes even more money on loans he made for his daughter's business after that was uncovered. This guy has got to be the biggest liar politician I have seen in a while. I wonder what will be uncovered about him today... I can't wait to see the next batch of polls on the race. Nathan Deal is without a doubt the Rod Blagojevich of the South. The Georgia GOP really messed up this time, by getting behind this crook.

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tjampel:

BH:

"Looks like this one is getting away from the Dems. Need to move WI to likely R."


On what statistical basis do you say this?

None?

I thought not.

Given the MOE, the fact that this is the expectation of a post-primary bump for Johnson
your comments are unfounded and show a profound lack of understanding of and/or respect for statistics along with a lot of wishful thinking.

They also clash with Ras' own comments. Ras still rates this a tossup since the poll was taken a day after the primary. They say that they can't tell what part of this is a bump (which will go down) and what might represent a real change) until the race is re-polled later; something that anyone with a modicum of knowledge about both statistics and political races would realize.

Read Ras' own report and then tell me if you still think your comments are sound.

Try reading Ras's report.

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Farleftandproud:

Yeah, I don't know much about Deal, but he sounds crooked. If he and Vitter win, it will not be good for their states or for progressives, but just like Katrina and Iraq hurt Bush, I think the policies of people like Angle, if elected or Miller in Alaska, or Brewer in Arizona, would cause a reverse anger from the left and from moderates, and I assure you that between now and 2012, it will be the left that will be the angry ones. You'll see workers including teachers and union people picket and march on Washington, and if good progressives like Feingold, lose, they can fight back on tv and energize their base, just like Santorum and Gingrich have done on Fox.

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tjampel:

Also, consider the fact that no other reputable poll, including the prior Ras polls has the race this far apart so there's no confirmation at this point

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IdahoMulato:

I would be waiting for a poll from PPP to confirm this trend. I don't trust Ras until it's very close to the elections. I guess I will believe their polls during the last week of October but not now.

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California:

Some observations:

1) This poll reflects a post-primary bounce for Johnson (Feingold was uncontested)

2) Unlike in previous polls, Rasmussen pushed leaners here

3) Rasmussen is the only pollster who has polled this race recently

4) Rasmussen is the only pollster who has found Johnson ahead in this race

5) In 2008, Rasmussen's final presidential poll of Wisconsin underestimated Obama's margin of victory by 7 points

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BH:

"Also, consider the fact that no other reputable poll, including the prior Ras polls has the race this far apart so there's no confirmation at this point."

What are you talking about? No other pollster has touched this race in two months - you know, a lot can happen in 60 days. So Rass' polls are all we have to go on right now, and just because you don't like the poll is not a sufficient reason to discount it.

Given the dynamics in other races in WI, Russ' cheddar bomb (that bombed) and this poll, a Lean R is not unreasonable at all. But by all means, believe what you want. Are we seeing a post primary bump for Johnson? Sure. But in such a tight race, a modest bump is likely more than enough to expect a modest lead smoothing out over the next few polls. And to say, that as of today, this is Likely R seems pretty reasonable. So put the poms poms away.

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Dave:

"2) Unlike in previous polls, Rasmussen pushed leaners here"

However valid your other points are, this one seems insignificant. Without leaners, it's 50-43. So it's not a huge shift there.

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Mogando669:

what "post-primary" bump ??

unlike post-convention bumps during prez elections, a PPB here is minimal, esp since Johnson's nomination wasn't exactly hotly contested... assign 1-2% max.

Still, if you look at the graph and historical polls, the first half is all D+X, while the recent ones are all R+X. Granted it's mostly Rasmussen, but that's still a decently clear trend.

And please stop discrediting the pollster and claim it all to be some sort of conspiracy. If that's a case, we should equally ignore anything commissioned by DailyKos (R2K or PPP), since DK clearly has a one-sided agenda and wants to steer narrative in their favor. But i prefer to include all polls and let the regression to the mean theory work itself (of course excluding actual frauds like SV).

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BH:

"But i prefer to include all polls and let the regression to the mean theory work itself (of course excluding actual frauds like SV)."

Finally, a reasonable take.

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tjampel:

BH: "What are you talking about? No other pollster has touched this race in two months - you know, a lot can happen in 60 days. So Rass' polls are all we have to go on right now, and just because you don't like the poll is not a sufficient reason to discount it."

Ras called it a tossup. You're taking issue with them, not me. I am just echoing what they said

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tjampel:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Johnson Feingold Other Undecided Margin
Rasmussen 9/15/10 750 LV 51 44 1 4 +7R
Rasmussen 8/24/10 750 LV 47 46 1 5 +1R
Rasmussen 8/10/10 750 LV 47 46 2 5 +1R
Rasmussen 7/27/10 500 LV 48 46 2 5 +2R
Rasmussen 7/13/10 500 LV 47 46 2 6 +1R

As you can see this has been steady up till now. Ras didn't see a reason to move it out of tossup because of that steadiness. A post-primary bump is expected to some degree.

This is all I'm saying. Do what Ras recommends; wait for confirmation from other sources.

Additionally there's simply no statistical basis for you to make your claim with MOE at 4. None at all. This covers the entire spread.

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RWCOLE:

It appears that Rasmussen has shifted to it's "likely voter" model. Don't know if the previous polls used this screen.

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tjampel:

RWCOLE:

It appears that Rasmussen has shifted to it's "likely voter" model. Don't know if the previous polls used this screen.


NOPE

Ras has been polling LVs exclusively for months now. Where have you been?

Ras own report explains this result quite well. Furthermore MOE is calculated for a good reason; polls can vary up or down by MOE for any particular sample without implying that the underlying race has changed at all...just that the one sample was different. That's why Scottie himself says that additional confirmation is needed here for him to remove the "tossup" designation from this race.

You can be sure that if Ras still has Feingold is down by 7 in two weeks people like me will start to freak out. Right now I'd simply like to see some other pollsters working the state (besides SUSA, which has embarrassed itself time and again this year (only)).

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