Zogby Interactive online surveys test McCain and Obama in eleven battleground states.
Is it true that this "online survey" caused Ohio to go to toss-up yellow?
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:09 PM
VA: M 44, O 52
PA: M 40, O 52
NM: M 44, O 52
MO: M 44, O 50
NV: M 47, O 48
CO: M 47, O 48
FL: M 47, O 48
IN: M 49, O 44
NC: M 46, O 50
NH: M 43, O 48
OH: M 50, O 45
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:17 PM
Well, using the interactive chart, without the Zogby poll it is O +4.3, and with the Zogby poll it is O +3.0. So I suspect the answer to your question is "yes".
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:19 PM
My quick take: These don't seem nearly as crazy as previous Zogby polls.
VA - another poll showing a large Obama lead
PA - lines up well with other polls
NM - matches recent Ras poll
MO - seems high, although SurveyUSA showed a similar number
NV - believable
CO - a bit tighter than other polls
FL - a bit tighter than other polls
IN - believable
NC - seems a point or two high, but not crazy
NH - believable
OH - seems to favor McCain too much
Posted on October 16, 2008 1:23 PM
Collectively these numbers in PA, OH, IN, and MO don't make sense, but the problem with internet polls in general is you often end up magnifying some sampling errors thanks to low numbers of respondents in certain subsets (thus requiring dramatic reweighting). And that goes double for state polls, since to do those right you need to weight by things like region as well as demographics.
Posted on October 16, 2008 2:06 PM
online polls are worthless.
Posted on October 16, 2008 2:21 PM
I think "worthless" is a little strong, but Nate Silver does have Zogby Interactive rated second-to-last based on primary performance, with a "pollster-introduced error" of over twice the third-to-last pollster.
So, on reflection, maybe "nearly worthless" wouldn't be too strong.
Posted on October 16, 2008 2:35 PM
Ok.. how about 75% worthless. Although looking at the descriptions, it's all dramatic shifts + Obama except for OH. Still, it's mostly worthless.
Posted on October 16, 2008 2:41 PM
How the hell is OH for McCain but no other state is?
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:09 PM
Ignore all of these internet polls. Although SOME of the #'s agree with traditional pollsters not EVEN RAS has McCain up in OH.
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:17 PM
The RED posters never show up when it's all about the state polling. They have a near impossible electoral vote challenge ahead of them.
Pollster John Zogby: "It's not quite over yet, but the odds are certainly against McCain. To win, he has to take back at least one blue state, as well as win nearly all the still undecided states. So it will take a big McCain surge nationally in order to pull this off.
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:19 PM
i bet boomshak is about to get on here and say "mccain is winning ohio, that means mccain will be president". he of course won't allow us to say it's an outlier and even if it was correct he still has to win every single one of the other states listed that obama is winning in order to win the white house. but the facts remain. obama is still ahead. false negative attacks do help in the polls and can help win an election but it won't be enough. mccain has attacked all he can and obama is still up.
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:22 PM
The editors of this site ought to ignore Zogby Internet polls. They are very kind to offer us the option of eliminating them ourselves, which I always do, and encourage others to do, as well.
To take one example, run the Indiana president poll with and without Zogby. With Zogby, it makes a weird bendy line. Without Zogby, there is a steady, straight line for both candidates. His results, singlehandedly, moved Ohio to toss-up at a moment that Nate Silver says Obama is leading by 5.3 points.
I've done so in emails, and I do so again: please, professors: stop including Zogby Interactive.
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:28 PM
New Rasmussen has the Ohio race tied at 49 apiece. The last Ras poll there had Obama ahead by 2, 49-47. So Ohio was going to turn yellow even without these goofy Zogby online polls. (which, actually, are in line with a lot of other polls - but I can't take seriously a polling method that show McCain up by 5 in PA just a month ago)
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:42 PM
The thing I don't get is people saying it's impossible for McCain to win all those "red" states. My response to that: Of course it is possible...that's why they are called RED states.
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:45 PM
It can't be ignored that things seem to be shifting back a bit. Maybe McCain's negative adds ARE having an impact after all with some delay? What happened these last few days? Is there some reason for the tightening that the blogging community has not noticed? I wonder what the post-debate polls will look like. Fingers crossed.
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:46 PM
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:51 PM
I remember looking at these Zogby online polls in 2006, when they showed Republican gubernatorial contender Ken Blackwell with a lead over Ted Strickland. Ted ended up winning by a 24% margin. I don't put much stock in these online polls. Most polls in Ohio show Barack leading by 2-5%.
Posted on October 16, 2008 4:11 PM
When you take the Zogby Online Freep Poll out of the Ohio mix, Obama's margin increases 1.3%.
Posted on October 16, 2008 4:12 PM
I've been following Zogby for years, and last time in 2004, on the state polls he did really poorly. he showed as his final poll in Ohio, that Kerry was the winner by 3 . Totally wrong. Since then his interactive polls have been mostly outliers. He is no longer considered an accurate pollster. It;s because of his interactive online methodology. It just isn't as accurate as gallup ,rassmussen or pew.
Posted on October 16, 2008 4:15 PM
Shifting back? There is a slight shift in national polls toward Mccain, but compared to Zogby a month ago these are shifts towards Obama. That said. They still seem like a spattering of outliers.
In regards to Ohio, Mccains chances there are very good, better than CO, VA or FL. Unfortunately for him, however, he needs them all.
I really don't buy this internet polling, but for those who like it, have fun guys!
Posted on October 16, 2008 4:26 PM
I think VA alone has put this race out of reach for McCain. There are simply too many states McCain needs to flip based on current polls. He could take Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and EVERY other toss up state at this moment and still lose because of VA.
Can he do that in 2.5 weeks? No way. Especially considering the cash advantage and 30 min air-time special Obama is going to put out soon. That will be viewed by enough swing voters to lock it up.
Posted on October 16, 2008 4:38 PM
Why do they even publish Zogby's Online Polls?
Posted on October 16, 2008 4:44 PM
I'm still kinda new at being a poll junkie but it seems the general census is this pollster is horse sh*t.
Posted on October 16, 2008 5:04 PM
give me a break... Obama is up 6 points in MO and 4 points in NC, but only one point in CO and down in OH. And they're internet polls? They are obviously not worth the money they paid for them.
Posted on October 16, 2008 5:06 PM
EVIDENCE THAT VA WILL FLIP FOR OBAMA
(updated w/2 new polls: CNU has Obama ahead of McCain 53.2% to 46.8% [w/leaners]; Zogby has Obama ahead of McCain 51.8% to 44.0%)
1) The 3 most recent VA poll have shown Obama's lead there to range from 6.4% to 10%.
2) 8 consecutive polls of VA (from 7 different pollsters) have shown Obama ahead there. In all 8 of these polls, Obama has hit 50% or better; 10 of the last 11 VA polls have shown Obama at 50% or better.
3) 14 of the last 18 polls of VA have shown Obama ahead there.
4) The latest VA polls show very little room for movement in VA, with both candidates having solidified their bases, and with independents evenly split.
5) Right-leaning Rasmussen's most recent VA poll finds Obama with a "very favorable" score that is 11% higher than McCain's--an enthusiasm gap that suggests Obama's likely voters are even more likely than McCain's likely voters.
6) Before the VA primary, pollsters tended to under-estimate Obama's margin of victory there; Rasmussen, whose most recent poll of VA shows Obama up 3, under-estimated Obama's margin of victory by 11 points.
7) Most if not all VA polls have not included cell-only voters, who are disproportionately young and for Obama; multiple studies have found that this omission leads to an under-estimation of Obama's support by 2-3%. VA has the 3rd-largest cell-only population in the country; see:
8) According to MSNBC, "[s]ince January, Virginia, a swing state this cycle, has experienced a net gain of 436,000 new voters, including what they call an 'onslaught' of new voters in the last week of registration. Nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters across the state are under the age of 25. Trends show that, regardless of age, females represent the majority of new registered voters." These trends (more youth, more women) favor Obama.
9) Obama is outspending McCain on advertising in VA by more than 5 to 1; see:
10) Obama has the backing of 4 of 6 living VA governors, including a Republican former governor and the current governor; he also has the support of one of VA's current senators. Former governor Mark Warner, who is crushing his Republican competition in his senate race (and who was the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention), may have reverse coattails.
11) Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, a southerner and former Republican, has targeted VA, visiting the state frequently; he will take some votes from McCain.
12) Obama has the superior ground game in VA, with over 60 field offices; McCain has about 20.
13) Obama leads in VA newspaper endorsements 1 to 0.
14) Obama visits the state this weekend.
Posted on October 16, 2008 5:40 PM
If you look at fivethirtyeight.com, they rate the Zogby Interactive polls as almost the least accurate. Ohio is closer than that.
Posted on October 16, 2008 7:13 PM
I just don't trust Zogby polls and filter his out of the interactives as a matter of routine. He predicted a Kerry win in 2004. Anyone know of a good site that hast the various pollsters and their "record" of the 2004 election?
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:04 AM
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